One of the first and probably most popular NFL team props that is generally released by all the top online sports books shortly after the NFL Draft is the projected regular-season win total and accompanying “over/under” moneyline betting odds for all 32 teams. This prop is possibly the closest thing to playing the stock market when it comes to finding the best value for your betting investment.
A team’s projected win total for that upcoming season will normally be consistent across all the top online sportsbooks, but the corresponding moneyline odds for betting on either the OVER or the UNDER for each total remains in a constant state of flux. It moves up and down with the early betting money coming in, so it remains very important to track these movements across a number of different sites if you are looking to get the best value for your actual bets.
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If you see a number that you really like, you can jump on it right away with a big unit play, make a small play in hopes of possibly hedging that number somewhere down the road or take a wait and see approach as we get closer to the actual start of the new season of games. You have to keep in mind that while recent free agent gains and losses along with a team’s newly added draft class will have some impact on the betting odds, most of the numbers you are seeing right now have more to do with that same team’s performance last season as opposed to its potential to take a big step forward or backwards in the upcoming season.
Going back to the 2015 NFL regular season, the Dallas Cowboys lost their starting quarterback Tony Romo for most of the year and dropped to 4-12. That offseason they added quarterback Dak Prescott in the fourth round of the draft in what was an afterthought for most bettors. Romo remained out of the lineup at the start of the 2016 season and Prescott came in to lead Dallas to 13 wins. If you are tracking a team that you believe might have the same potential for a huge
turnaround in 2017, then you might want to go big on the moneyline odds for the OVER. In the same vein, Carolina went to the Super Bowl in 2015 after going 15-1 in the regular season. With relatively no major changes to their roster, the Panthers plummeted to 6-10 last year.
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Another big factor in setting win total projections has to do with a team’s upcoming schedule. Going back to the Cowboys, they won 13 games last season playing a last place schedule against both the AFC and NFC North with added games against San Francisco and Tampa Bay. This upcoming season, Dallas will face the AFC and NFC West along with added games against Green Bay and Atlanta and its projected win total has been set at 9.5 with a -140 moneyline favoring the OVER. The Oddsmakers set the total and the betting public has been driving up the betting odds for OVER 9.5 wins ever since.
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While you might only have an actual online betting account at one or two sports books, this is the kind of prop that you should still shop around to find the best betting odds in your favor. In a quick comparison between two of the top books in the online sports betting industry, the moneyline odds for the OVER 12.5 wins for the New England Patriots have been set at -130 at site A and at -105 at site B. Site A has the betting line for the UNDER at an even money +100, while site B actually favors the UNDER at -125.